On January 9, the National Bank of Ukraine announced the official dollar exchange rate rising to 43 UAH per dollar—a historic record. Experts explain this as a seasonal phenomenon linked to increased demand for foreign currency at the end of the year, due to significant financial transactions.
In December, demand for foreign currency from both companies and individuals spikes, as shown by interbank and cash exchange transactions. The non-cash market currency deficit in December 2023 reached $3 billion compared to $1.5 billion in November. The National Bank stabilized the situation by selling more than $4 billion in reserves that month—about $1 billion weekly.
Since the start of the full-scale war, the NBU has sold over $128 billion from its reserves to maintain market stability. These interventions are considered necessary and justified, as the country's inflows are largely due to Western financial aid.
The hryvnia shows seasonal fluctuations, but experts expect no dramatic devaluation ahead. Forecasts suggest the rate will not exceed 47 UAH per dollar by year's end. The National Bank holds sufficient reserves, now above $50 billion.
The core challenge is the significant trade deficit: Ukraine imports far more than it exports, but the overall balance is supported by international aid. If external inflows stop, the hryvnia could come under pressure. A drastic cut in imports is impossible due to defense and critical sector needs.
Economic analysts recommend staying calm and watching central bank policy. There are no fundamental reasons for panic; the situation logically reflects Ukraine's wartime economy.