Are peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia likely to resume? One expert notes that direct talks are not currently taking place—instead, there are separate discussions between the US and Ukraine, and the US and Russia, known as 'shuttle diplomacy.' Moving to a trilateral or more productive direct dialogue, involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, could happen in the future. The expert emphasizes that the process is currently driven by the so-called American plan, which contains some Russian proposals but is mainly shaped by US interests.
Another panelist argues that the plan has Russian origins and was transmitted through diplomatic channels. He claims the presence of the US is largely nominal, with Washington having limited authority to provide security guarantees. The US, he says, is focused primarily on its own interests, including the issue of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the creation of free economic zones. According to the expert, progress is being made only in terms of future security guarantees, while concrete agreements on ending the conflict have not materialized.
Assessing Russia’s internal political situation, the expert points to recent setbacks and humiliations for Moscow—from failed military actions to a weakened international standing and loss of allies. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to resist and strike back. Against this background, he predicts possible protests or a political shift within Russia by 2026, after which a new leadership may become more open to compromise as state resources become limited.
For now, experts do not see real progress in the peace process: negotiations focus on future guarantees rather than tangible steps for peace or a ceasefire.
