Significant changes are taking place in the global energy market. The discussion is not only about energy as a pressure tool on Putin or China but also about rapid events unfolding in Iran. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iran's president may have resigned, and there have been calls for Ayatollah Khamenei to step down. This could lead to regime change—a development viewed as extraordinary after decades of established rule.
Theoretically, if Iran democratizes, longstanding sanctions could be lifted, allowing the country to boost oil exports. With regime change, Iran could swiftly ramp up production and export 3–4 million barrels daily, potentially triggering a price drop in global oil markets and weakening Russia and China's positions by reducing their revenues.
Events in Iran are developing rapidly, with reports of numerous casualties among protesters and security forces. Internet access has been cut off, and Elon Musk has made Starlink available to Iranians for free. The US is clearly supporting the movement. The leader of the opposition is a Pahlavi family member, coordinating protests and preparing to return to Iran.
Historically, Russia has supported radical regimes in the region, including in Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Iraq. Russia’s weakening now destabilizes its allies. Should a new regime in Iran encourage global integration, Iranian oil could replace some of Russia's share in the European market, hitting Russia's budget hard.
In the near term, the impact is indirect and not obvious, but Russia is aware of the threat and hastens negotiations concerning the war, fearing it may lose the economic basis for aggression. Future developments in Iran and worldwide reactions will shape the oil market and the international balance of power.
