Political analyst Ihor Reyterovych discusses the rumors surrounding the possible death of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Should Kadyrov leave office, Chechnya may find itself without its longtime leader, affecting both its internal affairs, Russia as a whole, and ongoing developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Despite long-standing speculation about Kadyrov’s health, even Russian sources now admit his condition is extremely serious. The possible transfer of power or ensuing power vacuum could have significant ramifications for the region.
There are considerable risks tied to changes in Chechnya's leadership. The transfer of authority to his son, Adam Kadyrov, is seen as unlikely due to Russian law and a lack of public support. Moscow's priority is to prevent internal clan conflicts and ensure that a loyal candidate, such as Delimkhanov or Daudov, takes over. Any attempt to share power among several figures is likely to result in ongoing conflict and regional destabilization.
Kadyrov's declining political influence, both in life and after his potential death, will impact Chechen groups’ standing throughout Russia. There is a risk of increased ethnic tension and competition for influence in the criminal sphere.
Reyterovych concludes that Kadyrov’s departure will not necessarily lead to immediate upheaval, but it will trigger significant processes within Chechnya and across Russia. President Putin’s response will indicate the level of Kremlin control and its capacity to direct the war against Ukraine.
