Ukrainian forces have achieved notable successes in the Caspian Sea, including reported strikes on oil rigs. These developments have further isolated Russia in the international arena.
Russia is experiencing worsening social and economic conditions: small and medium businesses are closing, issues persist with Gazprom, debts are being written off, and regional governments are increasingly reluctant to return loans to Moscow. China is acquiring Russian resources at subsidized prices, contributing to internal discontent within the federation.
Chechnya is also undergoing changes. Intelligence reports indicate that Ramzan Kadyrov is seriously ill, undergoing dialysis, with successors already present. This suggests a possible shift in North Caucasus politics.
In Iran, a new wave of protests continues with over 500 dead and 2,500 detained. Experts point to a potential democratic shift. The outcome and possible vector change could impact Iran's relations with Russia and China, as well as oil prices globally.
On the international stage, there is a crisis around Greenland: the US and the UK are considering military deployment plans, and NATO is preparing measures to contain escalation. The EU has warned of possible sanctions against tech giants if the situation escalates. Disunity among Western allies could benefit Russia, China, and Iran, so experts call for unity and continued support of Ukraine.
In Slovakia, political leader Robert Fico declares an intention to reduce aid to Kyiv, but Slovak society continues to support Ukraine in practice. EU leaders are discussing the need for a common defense policy.
In summary, the region is facing complex challenges. Ukraine is dealing with the war and energy shortages, but remains resilient due to international backing and internal unity.
