Vitaliy Portnikov reflects on the symbolism of the 1418 days of war, a number sacred in Soviet history, and how it is now used in Russian propaganda. This date marked the duration of World War II for the USSR and is currently referenced in Ukraine, Russia, and the West. Yet after 1418 days of Russia's war against Ukraine, there is still no definitive outcome.
Russian forces remain active in Donetsk, with attacks ongoing since 2014, while Ukraine strikes back with missile attacks on Russian strategic targets. However, no side has reached a turning point, and there are increasing calls for peace talks, including from Donald Trump. However, analyst Fyodor Lukyanov notes that the Russian leadership now treats war as a permanent state, not merely a means to an end.
Unlike the Second World War, modern Russia aims to maintain a prolonged state of conflict, using it to assert itself as a geopolitical player despite losing global competitiveness in peacetime. The Kremlin sees a war of attrition as a way to achieve strategic goals, including threatening other countries.
Putin is focused on a long-term confrontation, possibly expanding Russia's sphere of influence, while peace initiatives are seen mostly as tactical maneuvers. Economic and political pressure on Russia, sanctions, the destruction of oil infrastructure, and restrictions on oil sales can significantly impact its military capabilities.
Portnikov emphasizes that ending the war requires more than just counting days. It is about leveraging every opportunity to weaken the aggressor. Only when Russia's resources are depleted can a genuine peace process and the end of the Russia-Ukraine war become possible.