Donald Trump has called on American citizens and those from allied countries to leave Iran, while encouraging Iranian protesters to stand firm and seize government institutions. The US president declared help is near, fueling discussions about the potential for a US strike against the Iranian regime in the coming days.
Protests in Iran are intensifying, with serious clashes reported between protesters and security forces. With internet service disrupted in the country, precise information is lacking. Some agencies estimate up to 12,000 protesters have died, but demonstrations continue.
Trump had previously promised to strike Iranian government targets should protesters be killed. However, the format and consequences of any US operation remain unclear. The likely scenario involves long-range missile strikes rather than ground troops. Past bombings during the Israel-Iran conflict failed to bring regime change and instead led to increased repression.
The Iranian government is mobilizing its supporters to counter the protests, risking internal conflict. The US must weigh the risks, including potential instability in the oil market—something that could benefit Russia. Gulf states have reportedly warned the US that military action could destabilize the region and impact the American economy, with possible effects on the upcoming Congressional elections in November.
The situation is further complicated by the political implications for Trump; heightened tensions could affect voter support ahead of the elections. A scenario similar to Venezuela is unlikely in Iran, as the regime's ideological foundation suggests leaders and their followers would fight to retain power, even if top officials are lost to strikes.
Additionally, Iran retains ballistic missile capabilities, which could enable a response to any US strikes, threatening regional stability and risking further escalation.
Experts note that while predicting developments is difficult, the situation in Iran may unfold very differently from previous international crises.
