In December 2025, Russia's oil industry faced its most severe challenges in years as production fell by 100,000 barrels compared to November, dropping to 9 million barrels per day. The key causes were tough new sanctions from the US against major oil companies, Marasneft and Lukoil, enacted by the Trump administration.
These sanctions severely hindered both the export and financing of Russian oil, with over 80% of output falling under restrictions. Buyers such as India and China feared secondary US sanctions, leading to tankers being stranded at sea and a sharp decrease in contracts. Around 185 million barrels waited offshore, unable to be delivered.
Simultaneously, Ukrainian drones launched methodical attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure, seriously damaging refineries and platforms, including key sites in the Caspian Sea. The repeated strikes and ongoing repairs kept output below capacity.
These events caused prices for Urals crude to fall to pandemic lows, while Lukoil and Rosneft exports to China and India dropped by 69% and 18% respectively. Russia’s oil sector entered a crisis as production slumped, buyers fled, and prices remained low.
Experts note that the combination of Western sanctions and physical destruction of infrastructure has proven far more effective than either method alone. This shift in Western strategy reflects efforts to reduce Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine.
