Russia enters its fourth year of war with a new record: in the past year, 48 Russian companies declared default or are close to it. This is the highest number since the full-scale invasion, even surpassing the chaotic 2022, when 32 companies had problems.
This wave includes not only startups or short-lived firms but also respected companies that recently attracted funds in the bond market. The total problem debt reached 18 billion rubles. While this may seem small for a large economy, the average default is just 62 million rubles, predominantly affecting small and medium-sized businesses.
The crisis stems from soaring interest rates: businesses borrowed at 13–15% annually in 2020–2021, but by 2024–2025 face repayments at 26–35%. This majorly increased the burden, even for stable firms. Analysts expect the default wave to continue in 2026, with bigger companies likely at risk.
This situation has reduced investment activity. Businesses are now reluctant to take new loans, and instead of expanding, focus on survival. State support is limited due to budget deficit and is aimed only at strategic giants. But even they struggle: Russian Railways is selling real estate for cash, while giants like Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil have been forced to shed foreign assets under new sanctions.
Banks now face rising risks as many borrowers cannot repay loans, threatening a banking crisis and further reducing credit availability for businesses. Russia’s economy is caught: high rates choke growth, fiscal deficits and taxes worsen the outlook.
For Ukrainians, it is crucial to focus on personal financial literacy, investment skills, and resiliency amid external challenges.
