Recently, there have been widespread reports about a possible energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The author asserts that such statements should not be fully trusted: historically, Russia has used truces as an opportunity to regroup and accumulate resources. The main reason behind rumors of a ceasefire lies in recent Ukrainian attacks—strikes against oil infrastructure, as well as actions by the U.S., France, and European nations against Russia’s shadow tanker fleet.
The article highlights that Russia is facing dwindling revenue from oil due to export complications, coupled with the risk of their shadow fleet being seized in international waters. The possible ceasefire may be a tactic to buy time, amass resources, and prepare for renewed attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure when the opportunity arises.
Despite the apparent spread of 'peaceful' messaging, Ukrainians are advised to remain vigilant and prepare for potential new strikes, especially during cold weather periods. There is concern that a ceasefire could be exploited for a new round of escalation after a brief lull.
It is recommended to maintain alertness, strengthen the protection of energy infrastructure, and actively support defense forces. Caution is key, avoiding excessive trust in the adversary. Effective blockade of Russia’s shadow fleet is noted as a crucial step to weaken Russia’s war economy.
Despite a difficult winter, the article calls for unity, readiness for challenges ahead, and resistance to information manipulation. Continuous preparedness is advised until the end of the cold season amid potential threats.