Vitaly Portnikov analyzed the likely course of the upcoming trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, where one of the main topics may be an energy truce. In this scenario, Russia would stop strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and Ukraine would halt actions against Russian tankers and oil facilities.
However, the success of the talks depends on the results of the visit to Moscow by US representatives Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner and their meeting with the Russian president. The negotiations may take place in a format where the US consults separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations without joint sessions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the White House stress that the issue of the Donetsk region remains central. Russia insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the whole region, while the US offers a compromise to establish a free economic zone on territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
Russia is likely to maintain influence in the occupied territories of Donetsk. Proposals may also include deploying Russian National Guard units even in the absence of the regular army.
Portnikov believes that the demand for Ukraine's troop withdrawal creates risks of destabilizing neighboring Ukrainian regions and enables Russia to add new conditions. The US has not yet finalized its stance, and the talks' outcome depends on its resolve.
The analyst points out that Russia, continuing to pose energy threats, is not interested in true peace. Ukraine’s options for hitting Russian sites and defending its infrastructure are limited, while greater activity and decisiveness are needed from its allies in supporting the country.
In summary, Portnikov emphasizes that Russia is deliberately prolonging the negotiation process, apparently awaiting political changes in the US. He highlights the need for firmer Western actions to protect Ukraine amid ongoing conflict.