Senator Marco Rubio stated that only one key obstacle remains before the signing of the so-called “deal of the century” for peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Western analysts identify three potential scenarios for the war in 2026: ongoing mutual exhaustion, Ukraine’s weakening, and Russia’s weakening.
Within the negotiations, the question of territorial concessions arises. Ukraine consents to an international mandate over Donbas only if the territories remain recognized as Ukrainian and Russian forces withdraw, to prevent a swift occupation following the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.
Regarding EU accession prospects, despite US proposals and the idea that Ukraine could join the EU in 2027, European leaders emphasize there can be no special conditions and Ukraine must go through all standard procedures. Ukraine continues on its path of reforms and integration.
Pressure remains on Ukraine to make concessions, though some sanctions against Russia are in effect, and stronger measures could increase Russian vulnerability. Meanwhile, oil prices are rising again, partly due to US policy considerations in the Middle East and Iran. Iran faces economic hardship, with the national currency devaluing and other signs of crisis.
In US politics, Donald Trump’s ratings continue to fall and changes are occurring in migration policy. Key upcoming elections in the US and Hungary are significant factors that could influence peace negotiations and the fate of sanctions.
Ukraine insists on security guarantees, investment assurances, and transparent processes for a fair peace. The international community, sanctions, and ongoing reforms in Ukraine remain crucial components for future developments.