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Oral Agreement on Ukraine-Russia Energy Truce: Analysis of the Situation


The New York Times reports on an oral agreement for an energy truce between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators facilitated by Trump.

The New York Times reports that Ukrainian and Russian representatives reached an oral agreement in Abu Dhabi on a temporary energy truce, reportedly influenced by an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin.

No written agreements were signed, but the Russian delegation apologized to the Ukrainian side for continued shelling of Ukrainian cities after the oral agreement was reached, including attacks on Odesa and a passenger train.

Analysts note that similar pauses in Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have occurred before, mainly for accumulating missiles and drones. This new understanding may benefit Russia by allowing time to prepare new attacks and providing protection for its oil-refining facilities from Ukrainian drone strikes.

Moscow has not officially confirmed such a move, but the Kremlin spokesman acknowledged Trump's appeal to Putin to halt strikes. However, the absence of formal documents leaves the fate of the truce uncertain.

Political experts suggest Putin's priority is avoiding new U.S. sanctions, preserving budget stability, and maintaining positive relations with Trump, which could affect Russia’s economic situation if attacks resume or escalate. For Ukraine and its allies, the risk lies in a temporary weakening of defenses and giving Russia time to amass resources. Whether the truce will be honored and what position the parties will take after it ends will become clearer after the next round of talks.