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Energy Truce and Peace Talks: Three Scenarios for Ukraine in 2024


An overview of a possible energy truce between Ukraine and Russia, key issues in talks, Ukrainian successes, international support and a football sensation.

Recent reports indicate a possible energy truce between Ukraine and Russia. According to sources, if Russia refrains from attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure until February 1, this may signal progress in negotiations.

US Senator Marco Rubio announced a new round of peace talks scheduled for February 1, likely to proceed without the participation of Kushner and Vitkov, former US representatives. The main unresolved issue remains Donbas. Negotiators emphasize that security guarantees are possible only after the war ends.

Politico reports that about 90% of the issues for a future agreement have been settled, yet strategic disputes over territories and security persist. The Wall Street Journal outlines three possible scenarios for the war in 2024: continuation of hostilities despite talks, exhaustion of Ukraine, or, conversely, fatigue within Russia that could pressure its leadership.

Amid diplomatic efforts, Ukrainian forces continue to achieve military successes — recently downing two Russian aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-30, including over the Snake Island and in the Kursk region. French allies have seized another Russian tanker in the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, European countries intensify efforts to restrict Russia’s shadow fleet.

Outside politics and security, UEFA Champions League news brought a sensation — Benfica’s Ukrainian goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored a decisive goal against Real Madrid in the 98th minute, sending his team to the next round.

Thus, 2024 promises uncertainty, with outcomes dependent on negotiations, Ukrainian military resilience and external support.