This analysis examines the so-called "energy ceasefire" announced by US President Donald Trump, which was meant to last a week but was not fully observed by Russia. Officially, the ceasefire was to be in effect until February 1, but in practice, it lasted only two days and had little impact on the situation in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Trump announced a state of emergency regarding Cuba, enabling the US to impose new sanctions on countries supplying oil there. Venezuela, once Cuba's main energy supplier, is changing its policy, putting Cuba in a difficult economic position. The US State Department stated the Cuban regime will face consequences, though the method remains unspecified.
Russia, for its part, limits its actions to statements while its allies' political and military positions weaken, and Cuban mercenaries have been documented fighting in Ukraine. If the US steps up its actions, Russia’s regional influence may decrease further.
Simultaneously, Trump is also ramping up pressure on Iran by deploying a carrier group to the region and demanding new agreements on nuclear development. Iran has refused and threatens retaliation. Should the Iranian regime change, Russia would lose an important ally and a key logistics corridor. Heightened tensions have already affected global oil prices.
Amid global tensions, the author emphasizes the importance of supporting the Ukrainian military and calls for ongoing assistance to bolster the country’s defense.