Renowned political scientist Ihor Reyderovych shared his assessment of Russia's current economic situation. According to him, Russian officials are increasingly expressing concerns in private meetings about the growing budget deficit and the diminishing window for reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Russia's budget expenditures have exceeded planned targets, with new sources of revenue urgently needed. An additional 1.2 trillion rubles must be found to balance key financial indicators, increasing the risk that the budget deficit could reach 2.2 trillion rubles.
Among the main reasons are declining energy export revenues and the unexpectedly strong ruble, which—despite the Central Bank’s efforts under Elvira Nabiullina—is now harming the economy. Persistently low oil prices further contribute to the deficit, and forecasts for the coming years remain pessimistic.
The Russian government is trying to cover the deficit by issuing bonds, but this brings only a temporary effect. President Putin himself has acknowledged weak economic growth and the lack of a clear strategy for overcoming the crisis.
Experts note that the primary reason for Russia’s financial woes is the ongoing war. Restoring previous energy relations with Europe now seems unlikely due to US policy and the position of most European countries.
Reyderovych emphasized that Ukraine's main task is to hold out until financial pressure forces Russia to compromise on peace terms. He hopes this moment could soon arrive.
