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Trump, Putin and the Energy "Truce": Analysis of Statements and Implications for Ukraine


Vitaly Portnikov analyzes how Trump's view of the energy “truce” has affected relations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.

Amid one of the largest Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, US President Donald Trump emphasized that Vladimir Putin kept his word regarding the so-called energy "truce," as it lasted for the announced week. Trump considered this a positive fact, noting the importance of even seven days of respite during extreme cold.

However, attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities continued after the call for a truce. The absence of strikes was noted for only a few days, which did not appear to concern either Trump or Putin. Trump focused primarily on the reduction in attacks rather than the humanitarian impact on Ukrainians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed surprise at the lack of US response to Putin's failure to honor commitments. Trump, nevertheless, refused to acknowledge these facts. The article's author notes that for Trump, it is vital to demonstrate that the Russian president keeps his promises and maintains dialogue with the American leader.

The energy pause, according to the author, allowed Russia to stockpile missiles for new attacks and reduce the risk of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, creating an illusion of progress ahead of new peace negotiations with the participation of US representative Steve Witz.

The situation develops into protracted negotiations, with real solutions lacking due to Putin's unwillingness to end the war. Putin seems to be counting on maintaining the status quo at least until the end of Trump's term in the White House, while circumventing direct pressure through sanctions-bypassing schemes involving third countries.

Analysts and even some of Trump’s allies argue that economic pressure on Russia is insufficient and advocate for supplying Ukraine with long-range missile systems. However, Trump is reluctant to take such a step, seeking understanding with Putin.

The author emphasizes that Trump's desire to prove Putin's loyalty demonstrates a closed "club" of leaders determining conflict resolution, leaving other countries outside the process of deciding the fate of war and peace in Ukraine.