In his latest analysis, Vitaliy Portnikov examines Russia’s massive overnight attack on Ukraine, which many consider the end of a so-called energy truce. He questions whether the truce ever truly existed, pointing out that information about it mainly came from Donald Trump, who claimed he asked Putin not to hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the coldest period. The Kremlin never confirmed such an agreement, but strikes resumed immediately after the announced date.
Portnikov suggests that what appeared to be a truce may have simply been a technical pause for Russia to build up missiles and drones, rather than a genuine humanitarian gesture. He notes that such breaks in attacks have always corresponded with resource shortages, not negotiations or goodwill.
The article also discusses why the latest strike happened on the eve of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s visit to Kyiv. According to Portnikov, this aimed to signal Russia’s readiness to confront European institutions and NATO, not just American leaders.
Portnikov cautions readers against harboring illusions about Russia’s willingness for genuine peace or humanitarian gestures, emphasizing the need for a realistic assessment of Russian actions, the US role, and statements from Alliance leaders.