According to Politico, the ongoing talks in Abu Dhabi could create an opportunity to end the war as early as this spring. Ukrainian and American officials believe a ceasefire is possible, but certainty remains elusive. Discussions about a possible truce have been ongoing for over a year, with similar talks last year about Easter 2025.
One key factor is Donald Trump's desire to appear as the main peacemaker. Ending the war during election season is crucial for him. Trump hopes for productive talks with Xi Jinping, as ending the war in Ukraine would also impact US-China relations. In this situation, both sides are extending negotiations to maximize their political gains.
Both Ukraine and Russia seek victory. Russia’s leadership faces serious economic and mobilization problems, with an increasingly strained budget. At the same time, Ukraine also needs political victories, which directly affect the president’s prospects. Both parties are stalling for time, waiting for more favorable outcomes.
The energy truce, proposed by Trump, lasted a week but was not officially recognized by either Ukraine or Russia. The truce did not affect the course of talks, as attacks on energy infrastructure resumed after a short pause.
The question of security guarantees remains unresolved. While Western media suggest a possible military response to renewed aggression, Ukraine has not received any real security guarantees, only verbal statements reminiscent of the Budapest Memorandum.
There are suggestions of creating a “gray zone” in Donbas with an OSCE mission. The Ukrainian president’s office is gradually preparing the public for potential compromise, given little change on the front lines and the difficulty of continuing the war without external guarantees.
China’s role remains significant, benefiting from cheap Russian resources. Trump is a staunch opponent of Chinese expansion, influencing US positions in negotiations with Russia about the future of Ukraine.
