Today marks the official end of the nuclear arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia. The US initiated the termination, citing the need to counter China's growing nuclear capabilities, which are not limited by any international agreements.
With no agreement in place, each nuclear-armed country may increase its arsenal without oversight. The United States plans a major modernization effort estimated to cost nearly a trillion dollars. Russia faces more limited resources but will still need to invest in expanding and modernizing its arsenal.
New Russian weapons systems, previously outside the treaty restrictions, can now be developed freely, increasing the risk of nuclear blackmail, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
This global arms race is likely to push other countries, such as the UK and France, to expand and modernize their own nuclear forces, especially as confidence in US protective guarantees wanes. Europe may move towards greater strategic autonomy to strengthen its defense.
Increasing opacity and distrust among nuclear powers heighten the risk of sudden conflict. The example of the Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrates how a lack of transparency and dialogue can bring the world close to war. Today’s situation threatens a multi-sided escalation involving the US, Russia, and China.
This arms race complicates prospects for diplomatic solutions, especially regarding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which remains a key trigger for global instability. The responsibility falls on world leaders to restore mutual control and foster international security.
