On February 5, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” hosted a discussion with Valeriy Klochuk and Artur Kharetonov, President of the NGO “Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine,” regarding recent geopolitical developments.
The discussion focused on negotiations between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump and examined how these talks might affect the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. According to experts, the White House is taking the lead in preparing for Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in April, which may help define a new course for global politics and impact the future of the war in Ukraine.
The role of China was discussed separately. Since 2022, China has strengthened its support for Russia, holding annual meetings to coordinate policies. The end of the “military fraternity” agreement cycle between China and Russia may result in new forms of cooperation between the nations.
The program also touched on French diplomatic initiatives and potential risks of France’s independent foreign policy, which, experts say, may weaken EU positions amid China’s growing influence.
The weakness of European unity was highlighted, with experts asserting that China is advancing its agenda effectively against the backdrop of political instability and upcoming elections in leading EU countries.
Regarding the negotiations between the US and Russia about the war in Ukraine, the experts suggested Trump might propose deals involving cessation of active hostilities in exchange for eased sanctions or market access. However, such options pose political risks for Putin, given his regime's dependence on ongoing wars.
In summary, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit will likely determine the status quo for a new geopolitical balance and the outlook for resolving the war in Ukraine. While experts remain skeptical about the imminent end of the war, they emphasize the importance of the coming months in global politics.
