The 20th day of the Middle East war draws significant attention not only due to its local impact, but also because of its global influence on the war in Ukraine. Vitaly Portnikov emphasizes that Middle Eastern events have a direct effect on European and Ukrainian security as well as the ability of Western countries to support Ukraine.
During US Congressional hearings, the issue of limited resources for Ukraine’s military support was raised, considering the simultaneous conflict with Iran. Experts noted that a protracted war involving the US could reduce the volume and speed of arms deliveries to Kyiv. European countries and Japan have voiced their readiness to support shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating efforts to consolidate with the US.
Another factor is the ongoing drone attacks in Europe and infrastructure damage caused by Iranian and Russian activities. NATO countries and experts are increasingly concerned about a potential shortage of ammunition and weapons for Ukraine as more conflicts arise globally. Delays in aid approval, along with loosening sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, heighten the risk of additional financing for Ukraine’s adversaries.
The policies of the United States and the Trump administration have faced criticism over a lack of unity in anti-Iranian and anti-Russian actions. US assistance to Gulf allies is now proceeding without Congressional approval, including the provision of missiles and munitions that could also be needed by Ukraine.
The direct impact of the war with Iran and its consequences for Ukraine’s security consists of possible shortages of weapons, energy resources, rising prices and a deficit of strategic support from the West. Enhanced cooperation between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China is seen as a factor prolonging the conflict in Ukraine and hindering its diplomatic resolution.
Portnikov concludes that there is currently no reason to expect a quick end to hostilities either in the Middle East or Ukraine: the key factor remains the attrition of the aggressors’ resources, not diplomatic initiatives. The risk of conflict escalation and further effects on the global economy and politics is increasing.
