Political scientist Ihor Reiterovych in his video address commented on recent rumors regarding a possible Russian attack on the Baltic States, particularly Estonia from the city of Narva. These discussions surged after Bild published a map showing potential attack directions—an echo of similar publications before Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Debate is inflamed through the creation of fake groups like 'Narva People's Republic' on Russian social media, which, according to the expert, are part of Russia’s information-psychological campaign.
The main argument fueling this threat is the alleged inability of NATO to respond quickly; Russian forces could allegedly seize Narva to question the alliance's credibility. However, the analyst underlines that even a short-term Russian success would not destroy the EU or NATO, but would rather increase support for the affected nations.
Reiterovych stresses that the risks for Russia in carrying out such an operation vastly outweigh potential gains: local aggression will not receive China's approval, and the US and European allies would likely react with strengthened sanctions and military presence. The role of Belarus—potentially involved in such scenarios—is also mentioned, but its involvement remains limited for now.
Factors deterring Russia include limited resources for launching a new major offensive and improved defensive readiness by Baltic nations. Military reinforcements are already present in the region, and key sites are being fortified by local forces and NATO allies.
The expert concludes that at present, the likelihood of a Russian attack on Estonia or another Baltic country remains low, appearing more as psychological pressure and a distraction from events in Ukraine. Rather, Russian forces are focused on pressing military operations near Zaporizhzhia, hoping for success inside Ukraine itself.
Reiterovych sums up that any military aggression against a NATO state would cause irreversible and destructive consequences for Russia, far outweighing possible benefits.
