On March 23, the Veza Public Center interviewed Ihor Chalenko — a political scientist, OSINT analyst, and member of the National League of Centrists. The main topic was the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East on global fertilizer, oil, and food markets, as well as the related economic and political challenges for Ukraine and the world.
The expert noted that rising oil and fertilizer prices critically impact the agricultural sector in many countries, especially in Africa. Disruptions in supply chains and rising energy costs could lead to food shortages and increased inflation worldwide, particularly for hundreds of millions of people. This also means higher prices for Ukrainian farmers amid diesel shortages, attacks on ports, and high energy tariffs.
Chalenko highlighted that the protracted conflict strengthens Iran's geopolitical position, as it could dictate transit conditions through strategic straits and affect energy markets. Despite US efforts to balance the situation via multinational patrols, regional instability fosters blackmail and threatens the global economy.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the expert observed that rising energy prices and possible easing of sanctions on Russia could temporarily bolster its economy. This increases pressure on Western countries regarding sanctions policy and affects domestic politics, especially with rising fuel prices in EU nations.
For Ukraine, Chalenko stated that negotiating stances could shift depending on the international context, while the ongoing war in Iran adds economic strain. Recent surveys indicate polarized public opinion within Ukraine about seeking compromise.
In conclusion, the expert stressed the importance of stabilizing the Middle East for global economic security and noted the main challenge for the West is setting strategy regarding Russia and Ukraine.
