On March 25, the NGO “Vezha” hosted military expert Ivan Stopak to discuss the recent mass drone attack on targets in Russia’s Leningrad region. The operation, confirmed as a joint action by the Ukrainian intelligence (HUR), SBU, and related forces, aimed to strike at critical transport and energy infrastructure connected to Russian oil exports.
Among the targets was reportedly a ‘Purga’-class border vessel, though its status remains unconfirmed. Russia admitted the scale of the attack, reporting 389 drones launched in a single night.
The discussion also addressed drones that landed in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, likely Ukrainian drones that lost communication due to Russian electronic countermeasures.
Belarus’s air defense is reportedly unable to counter these advanced low-flying drones, which travel over Belarusian territory en route to Russian targets. According to the expert, Belarus’ legacy air defense systems are ineffective against modern low-signature UAVs.
Stopak notes that although Ukraine’s strikes against Russian infrastructure limit energy exports, they do not immediately weaken Russia’s military potential. Significant destruction would require missile strikes rather than drones alone.
The expert also discussed potential threats of Iranian strikes on Ukraine in response to cooperation with Israel and the risks of Ukraine being drawn into a broader conflict.
Regarding Russia’s ongoing use of drones and its manufacturing capacity, the analysis highlights a growing number of attacks and improved delivery capabilities.
In conclusion, the expert commented on the prospect of a US ground operation in the Middle East, stressing both financial and human risks, and the impact of these developments on oil prices and the wider global situation.
