On March 26, political analyst Vadym Denysenko discussed the diplomatic maneuvers of Alexander Lukashenko, focusing on his recent visit to North Korea and the political intrigue surrounding a possible invitation to Washington.
According to Denysenko, Belarus's main value for the US lies in its production of potash fertilizers, vital for the American agricultural sector. Post-2022 sanctions have increased US dependence on Canadian potassium supplies, prompting US interest in gaining partial control over Belarus’s industry to lower prices and counter Canadian advantages.
Russia is firmly against reducing its influence over Belarusian potash, perceiving the issue as both political and economic. Moscow blocked Lukashenko’s possible trip to the Washington summit, and both Russia and Belarus are using delay tactics to avoid direct confrontation with Trump.
Lukashenko faces significant pressure from Russia and must navigate between the West and Moscow, using diplomatic pauses. The US is negotiating for transit access for Belarusian fertilizers through Lithuania and Poland, but is willing to make concessions only if it gains direct access to the Belarusian industry.
Closer ties between Lukashenko and Trump could challenge Ukraine by giving Belarus greater political and economic maneuverability. Additionally, lifting sanctions from Belarus could accelerate similar processes for Russia, which would pose a risk for Ukraine.
Europe and China also have interests in Belarus, particularly regarding logistics and energy security. The US is applying pressure mainly on individual European countries rather than the EU as a whole. Europe is currently waiting for the outcome of the US elections before taking further steps.
Denysenko notes that the negotiation process between Ukraine, Russia, and the US is at an impasse. Without new participants—such as Europe, China, or possibly Turkey—progress will be limited. Both Americans and Russians oppose widening the circle of negotiating parties, but this seems necessary for substantive progress.
Overall, the present diplomatic status quo offers little progress on the Ukrainian issue due to geopolitical contradictions and caution among stakeholders. Ukraine and Europe are primarily awaiting the results of the US elections, which could become a pivotal moment for further negotiations.
