Experts analyze the current state and possible prospects of the peace process between Ukraine and Russia. According to reports, Russia has rejected Trump’s plan for conflict resolution and is focused on pursuing its military aims, particularly control over the Donbas. Oligarchs have been called upon to finance the war due to a deficit of state funds, causing budget cuts in social sectors and increasing risks of internal destabilization.
The discussion highlights that the war is losing popularity among Russians, including former supporters, weakening the regime’s internal legitimacy. Peace talks continue, but the active role of the US is said to be diminishing. Trump is unlikely to directly participate, with European countries and China positioned to take a greater role. China, notably, is expanding its economic presence in occupied territories.
The EU maintains an interest in supporting Ukraine as a barrier against Russia, but lacks a unified position, and energy security concerns remain acute. Various European governments act independently to secure their energy interests. Experts note that economic factors, particularly Russia’s dependence on China and China’s own economic challenges, could shift the dynamics between major players.
The high level of trade between Ukraine and China opens new opportunities; China might eventually take the US’s place in mediation. However, for now, China’s involvement in peace resolution is limited. Experts believe China may only increase its engagement in the event of a real crisis in the ongoing process.
In conclusion, Russia’s internal problems, divergent European stances, and strategic ambiguity from China and the US determine the future format of Ukraine’s peace negotiations.
