The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce a new wave of mass mobilization. This prediction is based on the decreasing effectiveness of the mercenary army model and economic hardships Russia is facing.
For over four years, Russia has waged a full-scale and brutal war against Ukraine, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to find people willing to fight for money. The decline is attributed both to a shortage of willing recruits and the financial crisis reducing contract payments. In Russia’s provinces, jobs are scarce, but military salaries are becoming less attractive given the risks and economic situation.
Military bloggers estimate that up to 90% of new recruits do not reach the front line. During the previous mobilization early in the war, hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country—many of them economically vital citizens.
The government is now working to limit population outflows, but rumors of renewed mobilization alone could trigger another wave of emigration. Newly mobilized soldiers would have little financial motivation, which could undermine the effectiveness of a forcibly conscripted army.
If Putin chooses to end the war, he faces the issue of a mercenary army demanding compensation once their service is no longer needed—posing a risk of social unrest. Replacing mercenaries with conscripts is also risky, as returning conscripts may place new social demands on the government.
Thus, Putin faces a difficult choice between mass mobilization with significant risks and continuing to rely on mercenaries—whose funding is increasingly challenging. This decision will shape not only the stability of his regime but also the course of the Ukraine war.
