This commentary reviews the economic situation in the US and around the world during the energy and geopolitical crisis of 2026. The host analyzes Donald Trump's policy, his pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for economic growth, and how these actions intersect with the effects of the tariff war and the subsequent escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.
After tariffs were imposed and direct confrontation with Iran began, the world experienced a rise in inflation. According to the OECD forecast, US inflation in 2026 may reach 4.2%—the highest among G7 countries. The American economy is suffering from logistical and energy shocks; oil and diesel prices have soared, raising logistics and production costs and fueling further inflation. For the first time in four years, the price of a gallon of diesel exceeded five dollars, immediately affecting consumer prices.
The recent escalation between Israel and Iran has led to the destruction of energy infrastructure and soaring energy prices. Disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as attacks on tankers, are likely to cause further increases and shortages in global oil and gas supplies. The US is actively using its strategic oil reserves, but these are only sufficient for a short period.
The Federal Reserve left its interest rate at 3.5% due to inflation risks, and the US mortgage market has nearly frozen as rates have reached 6.5%. The construction sector has slowed, and the dream of homeownership has become less attainable. Economic consequences affect Europe and Asia as well, with countries reliant on energy imports. For Taiwan and South Korea, interruptions in gas and helium supply critically impact manufacturing, and countries with weaker economies, like Egypt and Pakistan, are forced to subsidize prices and face the risk of social unrest.
In summary, the energy and inflation crisis of 2026 is unfolding against the backdrop of political ambitions that have triggered major imbalances in the global economy. US policy, especially military actions in the Middle East, has become a catalyst for worldwide instability, with ordinary citizens feeling the consequences globally.
