On April 2, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted a discussion with financial expert Oleh Penzin, focusing on the Middle East, energy markets, and the implications for Ukraine’s economy. The talk centered on Donald Trump’s recent statements, their effect on oil prices, and speculation about a possible US ground operation in the region.
Experts highlighted that the Trump administration aims to control Iranian oil output to leverage negotiations with China. However, unlike Venezuela, Iran’s political structure makes this goal difficult. Events in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbated an oil shortage, causing Russian oil to sell at a premium, especially to China and India.
Price volatility has led to higher gasoline costs in the US and destabilized the global energy market, affecting US relations with NATO partners and prompting European discussions about independent security architecture.
Amid energy uncertainty, the issue of financial support for Ukraine remains acute. The EU has proposed a possible €45 billion loan within the 2026 budget, bypassing the Hungarian veto through procedural changes. Existing IMF support, revenues from frozen Russian assets, and Japanese loan arrangements provide temporary relief, but new funding dilemmas are likely by June, with Ukraine reliant on future EU decisions.
The experts conclude by emphasizing the necessity for transparency in partnerships and continued European support to ensure Ukraine’s financial stability.
