This interview between Vitalii Portnikov and Valeriy Chaly, head of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center, explores what the future holds for NATO should Donald Trump be elected US President. The discussion analyzes the possibility of a freeze or breakdown in US-NATO relations, the potential impact on aid to Ukraine, and how Trump in his previous term pressured allies to increase military spending.
Chaly explains that an immediate US withdrawal from NATO is unlikely, citing current legal constraints and America’s ongoing interests in the Alliance. Special attention is paid to the importance of US military bases in Europe for Middle East operations and how US public opinion influences foreign policy, including support for Ukraine.
The prospects of US security guarantees for Ukraine, modeled after those with Israel or South Korea, and the possibility of American military presence in Ukraine are discussed. Chaly highlights the differences between US commitments to Israel and to Ukraine, noting the challenges in formalizing corresponding agreements.
The interview also examines developments in the Middle East, US engagement with global business, Iran’s possible maneuvers, various paths toward escalation or de-escalation, the future of European security, and the growth of regional and subregional alliances. Balance shifts within NATO, European countries’ positions, potential emergence of new unions, and the effect of prolonged wars on Europe’s security structure are analyzed in detail.
In conclusion, Chaly expresses confidence that NATO will survive even a Trump presidency, stressing the importance of Ukraine’s army and its contribution to the future European security architecture, as well as the ongoing need for international support.
