On April 3, the Center for Public Analytics 'Veza' hosted an expert discussion on top international developments affecting Ukraine. Participants included political scientists Ihor Eiterovych, Ihor Petrenko and Ihor Chelenko.
The main focus was the rising threats to Ukraine amid the Middle East war, the risk of a global energy and food crisis, and US statements about revising relations with NATO. Experts discussed the idea of a new military bloc involving Ukraine and other countries outside NATO, the role of Trump and his impact on Western allies.
The experts pointed out Ukraine's growing importance to the West but stressed serious political and economic dependencies—on EU support, military and financial resources, and sanctions. Key issues remain on the content of security guarantees for Ukraine, the quality of potential peace arrangements, and limited effective tools for US and EU pressure on Russia.
Special attention was given to the personalized approach of US leaders, the potential impact of Trump's policies on European unity, and future cooperation scenarios. China is seen as a pragmatic player that will not allow either Russia or Ukraine to lose but is not regarded as a security guarantor for Europe. The EU maintains a degree of trust but faces internal limitations and challenges.
The forecast is that, for the next 2–3 years, Ukraine will remain subject to international turbulence. The main task is to use crisis opportunities, strengthen internal political unity, and protect national interests in talks. The negotiation process on the war may intensify by autumn, but its outcome remains uncertain.
