On April 3, the Veza Center for Public Energy held a discussion on the current situation at the front with military expert Ivan Stupak. According to Agence France-Presse and independent sources, the frontline has remained largely unchanged throughout March—Russia failed to capture additional territory, while Ukrainian forces liberated only a few square kilometers.
The expert notes that the situation is currently a temporary plateau: Russian troops are accumulating reserves, preparing for possible offensives towards Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Hulyaipole. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russian reserves at 58,000 soldiers, but difficulties in replenishing their numbers are pushing the Kremlin towards covert mobilization. Nevertheless, these Russian resources may only be sufficient for one and a half months of intensive fighting.
A new statement from the Kremlin includes a clear ultimatum: Ukrainian Armed Forces must withdraw from Donbas to stop the active phase of the war. Experts interpret this rhetoric as a sign of internal crisis and uncertainty in Russia’s ability to turn the tide of conflict. The discussion also covers the impact of oil prices on the Russian budget and the country's military-economic strategy moving forward.
Experts address the prospects for creating new military alliances involving Ukraine to strengthen regional security. Ukraine is highlighted as a valuable partner due to its unique combat experience, but the effectiveness of such alliances depends on support from financially strong Western countries.
The EU’s current position is cautious regarding intervention in Middle Eastern and global processes, while Ukraine plays an increasingly important role in forming alliances with the Baltics, Poland, and Scandinavia. However, substantial change requires common interests and readiness among European countries to increase security spending.
