Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking additional grounds for escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, deliberately provoking Ukraine to strike Moscow. This view is increasingly voiced by Western experts, who suggest that retaliatory attacks on May 9 could provide the Kremlin with a reason for massive retaliation and new mobilization efforts in Russia.
May 9 is a key date for Russian state ideology, having replaced November 7 after the fall of the Soviet regime. Attacks on Moscow on this day could serve as a justification for decisive actions and abandoning negotiations with Ukraine. Putin appears determined to legitimize further escalation, derail any prospect of a truce, and set the stage for the next phase of the conflict.
The Russian authorities have already hinted at potential strikes in Kyiv, warning embassy staff of possible attacks on decision-making centers. However, Ukrainian air defenses currently prevent the Kremlin from achieving its main objectives — the destruction of the country’s leadership and government district.
Portnikov emphasizes that even if provocations or attacks on Moscow do not occur on May 9, Putin will find another reason to escalate. Therefore, Ukraine must focus on destroying tangible Russian military-industrial resources, reducing the enemy’s ability to wage war.
The expert concludes: Putin will not give up his plan for a prolonged conflict and views Ukraine as an object of aggression. The only path to peace lies in depriving Russia of the resources and manpower required to continue the war.
