European intelligence services warn of a possible assassination plot or coup against Vladimir Putin, allegedly spearheaded by Sergei Shoigu. According to reports, Putin now resides mostly in bunkers and avoids his estates, fearing both Ukrainian attacks and internal plots by Russia’s elite.
Recently, a civilian residential building in Moscow was hit after Russian air defense intercepted a drone—highlighting, according to experts, a key difference between Ukrainian and Russian defense approaches toward population centers. The incident generated some public reaction inside Russia but overall support for Kremlin policy remains high.
The newspaper Politico reports that Europe expects a potential Russian attack within the next two years, as Russia continues to experience military setbacks in Ukraine. US General Keith Kellogg points out that the Kremlin's failure to achieve objectives may drive it to escalate conflict, possibly targeting EU or NATO territories with hybrid or direct attacks.
As a result, political and security pressure is mounting on European countries, including debates around arms supplies and financial assistance to Ukraine. The United Kingdom has pledged to join international credit initiatives to support Ukraine, while Slovakia and Hungary have yet to join.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has held talks with European leaders, encouraged continued support, and reiterated Ukraine's readiness for negotiations. Reports indicate that Russia has proposed a ceasefire along the current front lines in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but Ukraine has declined.
Investments in drones have given Ukraine a technological edge and altered casualty ratios on the battlefield, to Russia’s disadvantage. However, active peace negotiations are currently stalled, with most diplomatic maneuvering taking place among Western political elites.
Overall, the political and military situation remains tense, with Europe facing unpredictable risks related to possible new Russian escalations, including potential threats to NATO and EU member states.
