The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a warning about possible retaliatory strikes on Kyiv if the Armed Forces of Ukraine attack Moscow during the May 9 parade. This message was addressed both to residents of Kyiv and to foreign diplomats accredited in the Ukrainian capital, urging them to leave the city in case of danger.
Previously, the Russian defense agency announced its intention to observe a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 10. However, as commentator Vitaly Portnikov noted, when Ukraine announced a possible ceasefire from May 6, Russian forces nevertheless struck civilian areas in Ukrainian cities. This casts doubt on the feasibility of agreements between Kyiv and Moscow, even for the short term.
According to the analyst, the main goal of these Russian warnings is not only to ensure the parade but also to seek new pretexts for escalating the war. Kyiv and the West respond calmly: President Volodymyr Zelensky advised foreign leaders not to visit Russia on May 9, while the European Commission and the US Embassy see no reason for their diplomats to be evacuated from Kyiv.
This year, the parade in Moscow will see few leaders from Western or Central Asian countries. Even traditional allies, except Belarus and a few others, have chosen not to participate.
The conclusion: this year’s May 9 celebrations highlight the waning geopolitical influence of Russia. Threats against Kyiv and diplomats are perceived as elements of propaganda and psychological pressure that now have little impact on either Ukraine or the international community.
