The latest developments regarding the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia reveal the complexity and contradictions in the decision-making process between European countries and the US. Initially, a key element was to lower the cap on Russian oil prices to 45 dollars per barrel. However, a rise in Brent oil prices due to events in the Middle East caused this plan to be delayed, and the focus shifted to a possible floating price cap, set at 15% below Brent, currently about 57 dollars per barrel.
The positions of countries such as Malta or Slovakia created additional obstacles to adopting the package. Nevertheless, Europe remains concerned about the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and continues seeking ways to cut Russia’s energy export revenues.
In terms of US sanctions, Donald Trump's rhetoric is known for its volatility. His suggestion of 100% tariffs on goods from countries buying Russian oil appears unlikely to be implemented soon and serves primarily as a political tool. The US market’s deep interdependence with global trade, especially with China, makes significant increases in tariffs controversial among experts and business circles.
The US’s fundamental agreement to sell weapons to Ukraine funded by Europe received mixed reactions: Germany is ready to pay, while France and others decline major participation.
Special emphasis is placed on Russia’s increasing economic dependence on China, allowing Russia to access credit and maintain its ability to finance the war.
