On July 17, the Veza Analytical Center hosted a traditional interview with analyst Vadym Denysenko. The discussion focused on the current policy of the European Union regarding military assistance to Ukraine, Donald Trump’s change in rhetoric, as well as economic processes and the potential power transition in Russia.
The interview highlighted that European countries have divided into three groups regarding support for Ukraine: those helping independently of US funding (e.g., Czechia and France), those contributing via NATO funds to avoid internal turbulence (Austria), and those ready to provide direct financing. Debates about European unity are intensifying amid new defense agreements (such as between Germany and the UK) and anticipation of possible changes in US-EU trade relations as tariff deadlines approach.
A separate part of the discussion concerned Russia. Denysenko emphasized that despite persistent rumors, public discussion of Putin’s successor is strictly banned in the Kremlin. At the same time, there are considerable economic changes: active nationalization of business, narrowing circle of untouchables, and rising importance of the security apparatus. The main purpose is redistribution of assets among powerful groups, not budget replenishment.
According to the expert, Russia faces budget deficits and inflation risks, with solutions sought in either budget cuts or controlled inflation. Attracting large-scale loans from China or India is not currently a real prospect; instead, key problems are technological lag and shortage of skilled labor.
In conclusion, the experts agreed on the need to continue monitoring Russia’s and Europe’s economic and political developments, which directly affect Ukraine’s aid prospects.
