On July 30, experts from the Veza Center for Public Analytics discussed the signing of a framework trade agreement between the US and the European Union. Valeriy Klych and Illia Skhodovsky, head of the analytical direction at the ANS network, analyzed the main provisions of the document and its global implications.
The agreement is framework in nature and does not include specific projects or investment commitments, the experts stressed. The announced investment figures (up to $600 billion from the EU to the US during Trump's term) are so far formal targets, with the implementation of investment initiatives depending on internal reforms in Europe.
A significant part of the discussion focused on energy: the agreement calls for the EU to give up Russian energy imports by 2028 and switch to American supplies. However, the experts noted limited capacity of US companies to meet demand and the risk of Russian energy entering the EU market under different branding via various mechanisms.
Regarding China, the potential for tariff imposition and increased US pressure after August 8 was discussed. Trump considers sanctions as a tool for bargaining with China, while also using Russia as a bargaining chip in these talks. Experts predict increased isolation of Russia on global markets if India and China take tough stances on Russian oil purchases.
The discussants highlighted that the ultimate implications of the US-EU deal will be clear only after conditions are detailed and Europe undertakes additional financial and investment reforms. Russia, in this process, is increasingly seen as a bargaining tool between the US and China.
