On July 30, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” held an online discussion with political scientist Ihor Chalenko. The focus was on the intensification of political processes in Ukraine alongside the spread of Russian Telegram channel rumors about alleged meetings between Ukrainian military leaders and Western officials to discuss replacing President Zelensky. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate denied these claims, but the media’s attention to elections and government prospects has increased.
Ihor Chalenko emphasized that such Russian disinformation aims to weaken Ukraine’s leadership, fuel internal tension ahead of elections, and influence talks with the West. He noted that, despite no real prerequisites for snap elections, parliament is already preparing changes to electoral law. Elections, he argued, can only be realistically held after martial law ends, while Russia insists on immediate elections as a negotiation condition and portrays Zelensky as an obstacle to peace.
The discussion highlighted major risks of holding elections during active conflict: potential strikes on polling stations, military voters’ security, and the likelihood of provocations by Russia. The scenario in which Russia halts hostilities to allow elections appears unlikely due to deep distrust in any Russian guarantees. Problems with ensuring the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions were also raised, impacting relations with the EU.
The impact of international factors was examined, particularly Donald Trump’s pressure regarding new sanctions against Russia and China. The analysis agrees that such sanctions serve chiefly as leverage in US–China trade negotiations rather than a direct tool against Russia. China and India remain crucial actors in Russian exports, and the effect of stricter sanctions hinges on their positions. The EU, meanwhile, continues to support Ukraine but expects Kyiv to resolve issues related to the independence of anti-corruption bodies and a transparent electoral process.
In summary, Ukraine’s political situation remains challenging amid simultaneous internal and external pressures. Russian information attacks seek to destabilize the country, promote the narrative that “peace is impossible with Zelensky,” and create domestic tension. Western states, especially the EU and US, conditionally support Ukraine while demanding reforms and recognize the importance of maintaining political stability within the country.
