On July 30, a new era of US sanctions pressure on China began, with the goal of making Beijing push Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. So far, neither Moscow nor Beijing has yielded. The first US tariffs, however, have been implemented not against China but against India, in connection to India's purchase of Russian oil, causing a controversial response in New Delhi.
On the same day, Russia continued to shell Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Sumy Regional Military Administration and civilian sites, resulting in casualties among civilians. The Kremlin claims to have immunity to sanctions, while the US signals intentions to intensify measures with more restrictions and penalties.
Senator Lindsey Graham stated that Trump is changing the rules of the game, and secondary sanctions may apply to Russia's allies, primarily China and India. However, China insists on its sovereign right to trade with Russia, and India promises to diversify oil supplies quickly.
Amid these developments, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes combat in Ukraine may soon be halted, but Poland and Germany are strengthening their defense in any case. The EU has launched a new credit program for arms purchases, joined by Belgium, Czechia, Spain, and others.
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the Russian economy: it expects a slowdown to 0.9% in 2024, with stagnation in car manufacturing and other sectors. Russian factories AvtoVAZ and KamAZ are reducing production, and banks are reporting client outflows.
Ukraine's Parliament will vote on restoring the independence of NABU and SAP tomorrow. Meanwhile, Naftogaz is embroiled in scandal over large salaries for the security of top management. The government is expanding the mobilization contract for military personnel aged 18-24.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu warns of Russian attempts to interfere in the autumn elections through party funding and cyberattacks.
