A recent interview discussed a statement by Austria’s foreign minister that Donald Trump may have proposed giving five Ukrainian regions—those later included by Russia in its constitution—to Putin. There has been no official public position from Trump, though Russian Deputy Prime Minister Medinsky presented memoranda mentioning these territories after talks in Istanbul.
Experts note that even Trump administration officials did not fully understand the extent of Russian control in these regions, relying largely on information from the Russian side.
It is also pointed out that international media often spreads inaccurate data about the degree of occupation in Ukrainian territories, which experts believe is a problem for both journalists and diplomatic communications.
At the same time, the outcome of US-China negotiations could affect Russia’s position in the war: without China’s support, Russia would lack the resources to continue the conflict, but at present, Beijing shows no signs of changing its stance.
With upcoming deadlines on August 8-9 and the possible signing of a US-China trade agreement by August 12, experts forecast various scenarios—from partial freezing of the war to new US-led sanctions. The more likely development is the gradual transformation of the Ukraine war into “Trump’s war” should his administration become actively involved and impose sanctions on Russia.
In summary, experts conclude that no major changes for Russia are expected in the short term, though even moderate new sanctions could gradually alter the international situation.
