On the eve of the Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin summit scheduled for August 15, experts are discussing potential outcomes. Maxim, a participant in the discussion, expresses highly modest expectations for the meeting, emphasizing that Russia is maximizing the informational benefit—especially for its domestic audience—due to the summit’s location in Alaska, which is actively exploited by Russian propaganda.
According to the expert, the United States has not fully leveraged the summit's potential to strengthen its own position. American ultimatums, particularly those concerning sanctions, have proven ineffective—no new restrictions were introduced after earlier deadlines lapsed, highlighting the US's weak negotiating stance.
Maxim is skeptical about scenarios involving "territorial exchanges" between Ukraine and Russia, citing serious ethical and moral obstacles. The possibility of a ceasefire remains unclear, with the expert emphasizing that the US has not acted as a reliable guarantor of security or commitments in this context.
Special attention was paid to China’s role. The expert believes China would benefit more from the war’s continuation, gaining political and economic advantages and avoiding its own risks. Europe appears to take a similar stance: formal positions on ending the conflict are lacking, with some countries preparing for possible future confrontations.
Meanwhile, arms production for Ukraine is increasing in 2024, and European support is expected to continue, even after the summit. However, if the war is frozen, there is a risk that arms supplies to Ukraine could decrease.
