In the first half of 2025, Russian oil giant Rosneft saw its profits decrease by more than 68%, dropping to 245 billion rubles (about $3 billion). The main driver behind this decline was falling oil prices, as OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and others increased production, pushing global oil prices down.
The company’s revenue in this period reached 4 trillion rubles, almost 20% less than a year earlier. Rosneft also faced rising costs due to high central bank interest rates, while production volumes fell by 5–6% due to refinery repairs and a deliberate reduction in output to adjust to market conditions.
Sanctions and discounts on Russian oil further reduced profits. Russian oil is being sold at a discount as buyers demand compensation for risks. Logistics costs rose as state monopolies such as Transneft and Gazprom raised their tariffs faster than inflation—pipeline transport and rail logistics costs climbed by 10–14%.
Much of the profit is now spent covering these additional expenses, hindering investments in development. New customs restrictions and tariffs, especially from the Trump administration, have required offering further discounts to India, one of Russia’s key oil buyers.
Rosneft’s CEO Igor Sechin publicly acknowledged the industry's difficulties, citing the growing oil surplus caused by OPEC competitors. By year-end, the surplus could reach 2.5 million barrels per day, according to his forecasts.
The OPEC+ strategy has shifted: the alliance is now focused on expanding its market share by boosting supply rather than holding prices high. OPEC+ countries have decided to increase production, taking into account the global economy’s stability and low oil stocks.
Some market players expect the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could stimulate the economy and drive up oil demand. Yet, uncertainties remain for Russian companies due to weak demand from China and other factors. The situation on the oil market is tense, and Russian oil companies like Rosneft may face further challenges.
