The President of Ukraine and the National Police have announced the detention of a suspect in the murder of politician Andriy Porobiy. The individual was found in Khmelnytsky region, where he was hiding after the crime. No details on the motive have been released yet, but possible Russian involvement is already being discussed.
It is reported that the suspect had been planning the murder for a significant time and, during the crime, made sure the outcome was fatal by firing eight shots at Porobiy, former Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada. The National Police sees no direct connection yet between this case and the previous high-profile killing in Lviv of former MP Iryna Fario.
Experts suggest that such killers may act independently but might also be part of broader efforts related to Russia's attempts to increase its influence in Ukraine not only militarily but also politically and economically. Comparisons are drawn to Russia’s tactics in Georgia after the 2008 war, where Moscow sought to control political developments.
At the same time, Ukraine and Georgia have important differences, such as the absence of language-based identity issues in Georgia, while in Ukraine, identity and language remain central. Russia is said to count on internal identity conflicts in Ukraine to influence future political choices, even after the war.
Analysts stress that after the war, Moscow will likely try to remove Ukraine’s most prominent pro-Ukrainian politicians from the political arena in order to regain control. Thus, even isolated assassinations of political leaders could be part of a broader scenario to pressure Ukraine and return it to the Russian sphere of influence.
The main postwar challenge, according to experts, will be preserving identity and developing an independent Ukrainian state. Failure to achieve this risks allowing external actors to determine Ukraine’s fate once again, potentially giving an advantage to those politicians aligned with different values.
