The war in Ukraine has led to the largest supply crisis in explosives since World War II. Ukraine and Russia together controlled over 70% of global production of ammonium nitrate, a key explosive component. With the full-scale invasion, this supply chain collapsed. TNT prices soared from $0.50 per pound to $45 per kilogram—a 4400% increase—paralyzing mining, construction, and military production globally.
Before the war, Ukraine was the second-largest producer and exporter of ammonium nitrate after Russia. Ukrainian chemical plants produced over 5.3 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers per year, exporting 70-80% of production to Turkey, India, Malaysia, Brazil, and Argentina. Even after stopping domestic TNT production in 2001, Ukraine remained a vital supplier of ammonium nitrate for industrial explosives.
Most major chemical factories (Cherkasy Azot, Rivne Azot, Severodonetsk Azot, and Stirol) were destroyed or captured during the war. Ukrainian output of nitrogen fertilizers dropped by 66.9% in 2022, with only partial recovery later. Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Canada previously accounted for up to 92% of global ammonium nitrate supply, but the war disrupted this traditional supply chain.
The United States is particularly affected, having ended domestic TNT production decades ago and now relying on imports. With Russia and China halting exports, and domestic production insufficient, the U.S. faces severe shortages. Mining in South Africa, construction in Europe, and military stockpiles on several continents are also suffering. The U.S. is building a new military TNT plant in Kentucky, but all output will be reserved for defense use.
European, Indian, and other manufacturers are ramping up production, but raw material prices have doubled or tripled. The war in Ukraine has exposed global supply vulnerabilities in explosive chemicals, creating strategic challenges for industries worldwide.
