Political analyst Ihor Chalenko on the Klychok Time channel examines whether a so-called Korean scenario is possible for Ukraine. The analysis is set against the backdrop of key talks in Paris on security guarantees for Ukraine and President Zelensky’s recent interview with the French magazine Le Point.
The Korean scenario assumes ending the war without a peace treaty, followed by the country’s economic recovery, as seen in South Korea. Zelensky stressed that copying this model for Ukraine is impossible, especially due to challenging security issues and the scale of the Russian threat.
Chalenko highlights crucial similarities and differences: Korea faced a civil conflict, whereas Ukraine confronts aggression from another state. In the Korean War, the US and the UN contained North Korea, while Ukraine faces a more powerful adversary with nuclear weapons and support from China and Iran.
After the war, South Korea rapidly rebuilt thanks to US aid. Ukraine, on the other hand, has lost control over about 20% of its territory, including key industrial regions. Nevertheless, Chalenko notes the Ukrainian economy is adapting even in wartime.
Economic recovery, robust international guarantees, strong alliances, and security sector reforms determined South Korea’s success. However, Chalenko stresses that Ukraine needs broader guarantees, including potential NATO or EU membership and real bilateral agreements with the US, UK, France, Germany, and other coalition leaders.
Investment in technology, energy, infrastructure, and the fight against corruption are critical—otherwise, international aid may prove ineffective. Deterrence of Russia must be comprehensive and consider the nuclear factor. Chalenko also emphasizes the importance of diplomacy—external factors, as seen in Korea with Stalin’s death, can hasten ceasefires.
In summary, Korea’s experience offers lessons for economic recovery and building alliances, but Ukraine’s military-political situation is more complex. The upcoming Paris coalition meeting is expected to clarify the parameters of security guarantees. Chalenko urges close monitoring of developments and international practices in pursuit of a suitable security model for Ukraine.
