On September 4, Vadym Denysenko, political scientist and historian, gave an interview at the Veza Public Analytics Center. The main topic was the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine on terms similar to the Korean scenario, alongside the influence of key global powers — the US, China, the EU, and Russia — in these processes.
The discussion began with references to ideas by former NATO commander Stavridis and ex-NATO Secretary General Rasmussen about partial NATO membership for Ukraine and a scenario of territorially dividing the country, similar to the two Koreas. It was noted that post-WWII Korea’s division was initiated by external players rather than the Koreas themselves. Denysenko emphasized that decisions regarding Ukraine will also be made internationally, not just in Kyiv or Moscow.
Denysenko remains skeptical about Ukraine’s chances of full NATO membership in the near future, arguing that talks between global players will continue to determine the course of events. According to him, a temporary partition along the front line, akin to Korea, is possible only if all key actors — the US, China, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine — agree.
The matter of security guarantees for Ukraine also featured in the conversation. Denysenko maintains that true guarantees revolve around weapon deliveries and the development of Ukraine’s defense industry, while hosting foreign peacekeepers would only offer symbolic or policing value. The US will likely focus on supplying technology and weapons through European intermediaries, rather than deploying forces directly.
The readiness of European partners to finance support for Ukraine after a potential "freeze" of the conflict was discussed. Denysenko noted that the geopolitical landscape is shifting towards financial and economic competition between the US, China, and the EU for global influence.
A separate part of the interview was devoted to China’s role — as a partner to Russia, sustaining trade and economic ties. According to Denysenko, China aims to transform the global economic and security order and now defines itself as the "second pole of the world." Meanwhile, Putin tries to maneuver between China and the US by leveraging the topics of the Arctic shelf, the Northern Sea Route, and energy trade.
The talk concluded with perspectives on Russia’s geopolitical standing, its economic dependency on China, and whether China might expand further into Eastern Russia. For now, Denysenko suggests, this influence remains strictly economic.
