US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced that US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in September. This meeting would be significant as it could come before the planned dialogue between Trump and Russia's president, expected in October during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia.
The key question is what Trump can offer Zelensky at such a meeting. After earlier talks with Vladimir Putin in Alaska and meetings with Ukrainian and European leaders in Washington, Trump pledged to organize a trilateral summit to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. However, there have been no signs of preparations for such a meeting, nor for direct talks between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents.
Putin invited Zelensky to Moscow but stressed that the real decision to end the war comes from Trump. Russia insists that Western aid to Ukraine should end, effectively demanding Ukraine's capitulation, something Ukraine rejects. Zelensky said a Trump-Zelensky-Putin meeting could happen anywhere but Moscow, but for now, preparations are stalled.
Much depends on Russia's economic situation and the support from China and India, who see a Russian victory over Ukraine as a victory over the West. This dynamic affects Putin's potential willingness to end the conflict.
Trump cannot pressure Zelensky to make concessions to Russia, as Putin himself is not demanding concrete concessions while continuing military operations. Trump avoids addressing Russian attacks and instead blames European nations for prolonging the war, even though most of Europe no longer buys Russian oil. The main purchasers are countries closer to Trump, such as Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, and India, which resells oil products.
The Trump-Zelensky conversation is likely to be largely ceremonial, with little sign of real progress toward ending the war. Secretary Rubio believes Trump may conclude that the Russia-Ukraine war is unsolvable. This raises questions about future US strategy: whether Trump will try to distance the US from the conflict or resume military aid to Ukraine to counter Russian aggression.
In summary: the situation remains complex. America's approach to the war will shape US involvement in European security amidst the threat of further escalation by Russia.
