Recently, Russia, once seemingly an undisputed leader in the war against Ukraine, has started to lose its initiative and faces mounting challenges. The Kremlin’s strategy aimed at maximum pressure on Ukraine, seeking to push it into concessions and end the conflict on Moscow’s terms.
However, attempts to fully influence Donald Trump’s administration failed, and thanks to proactive European partners, Ukraine maintained a principled position and refused compromises that could endanger its sovereignty. The first meeting at the White House showed that Ukraine would not bargain with its independence.
Amid ongoing fighting, casualties, and economic weakness, Moscow now deals with persistent deficits, falling oil prices, and sanctions impacting its economy and trade partners. Russia’s real sector is gradually collapsing, masked only by increased spending on military operations.
The West is intensifying its support for Ukraine — financially, militarily, and politically. Meanwhile, Kremlin rhetoric focuses on supposed victories, but actual developments show the opposite: Russia is weakening, and optimism for a swift triumph is fading. Speeches by Russian leaders about advantages and threats expose more of a strategic deficit than strength.
Despite attempts to portray resilience, the Kremlin failed to use a favorable diplomatic window and is losing its chance to end the conflict on its own terms. Prolonged warfare now plays into the hands of Ukraine and its allies, with growing Western support creating fresh problems for Moscow.
Maintaining international support and building economic and defense capacity remain crucial for Ukraine. Probable adjustments in Russian approaches are becoming evident, and the political initiative is gradually shifting to Ukraine and its partners.
